EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on the lack of any high impact economic releases form the US. FED’s officials continue to send dovish signals as for the central bank’s rate policy. The stable inflation number in the US shows that inflation posed to same level and this gives to the FED space to rethink their future interest rate policy. On the other side the ECB maintained a hawkish stance and signal more rate hikes ahead. The divergence between the two central banks is pushing investor into Euro bond demands and this will keep the pair trading on the upside.
As for this week market participants will mainly focus on the European inflation number and the US non-farm payrolls. A slow down in the US non-farm payroll could accelerate US Dollar selloff. A lower than expected European inflation could have negative impact on Euro as it will force ECB to reevaluate their interest rate policy. Decision over gas price cap is still pending between the 27 EU leaders. In case this will be achieved we are expecting a huge market reaction wit the Euro getting in troubled as Russia’s position is clear that any price cap on Russia gas, flow toward Europe will be completely cut off.
On the economic calendar, we have on Tuesday German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing lower at 11.3% On Wednesday, European core Harmonized index of consumer prices expected lower at 10.4% US gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 2.6% ADP employment will show an additional 200k new jobs. On Thursday, German retail sales expected lower at -1.5% and US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 49.8 On Friday US non-farm payrolls expected to show an additional 208K new jobs
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above 61.8% In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside and close above last higher level of (1.0500) could accelerate gains to full recovery of 100% Alternatively, if pair resumes the downside we are expecting to retest 1.0150 (50%). Our traders are sitting on the side and waiting for new indicators on either side. We are expecting short sellers to appear around 1.0600 targeting profits at 1.000 and new buyers around 1.0120 targeting profits above 1.0500
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on US Dollar’s selloff. The stable US inflation and the dovish comments from FED’s officials on future interest rate policy waived any chances for any rate hike in the next FED meeting. On the other side the GBP is gaining more lost ground as UK inflation still giving room for more rate hikes in the UK.
As for this week market participants will focus on the US non-farm payrolls. A worse than expected number could accelerate US Dollar selloff and give the pair more room to recover. The lack of any high impact economic releases in the UK will let the pair in the mercy of its counterpart US Dollar.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, US gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 2.6% ADP employment will show an additional 200k new jobs. On Thursday, UK manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 46.2, US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 49.8 On Friday US non-farm payrolls expected to show an additional 208K new jobs.
Technically the pair is positive as the pair closed above 61.8% registering new higher level. In this week’s trading session if pair manages to continue on the upside, will keep the overall picture positive and could open the road to more recovery up to 1.2200 Alternatively a reversal on the downside and a break below (61.8%) could retest 1.1590 (50%) Short sellers are standing firm between 1.1600 and 1.2100 targeting profits around 1.1738 we are expecting new buyers around 1.1800 targeting profits above 1.2100
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